The Leap Blog
12 October 2018
(with Ajay Shah,
Bhargavi Zaveri)
Runs on banks
Runs on banks are to finance what supernovae are to astronomy. R. K. Narayan's book
The financial expert vividly tells the tale of the chaos and misery of a bank run.
Bank runs are not random events. What makes a bank run happen is the fact that each depositor has the incentive to run when
faced with a slight chance of a run developing. Robert K. Merton used
runs as a motivating example of his introduction of the concept of
`self-fulfilling prophecies'. In order to understand runs, we must
understand the incentives of each customer.
Suppose a bank is not protected by the government or by the central
bank. Suppose you see many depositors running to take their money out of
the bank. Now there are two possibilities.
If you believe the bank is unsound, then it is efficient for you to
stand in the queue and try to take your money out. If others do this
before you, then you may be left with nothing.
Even if you believe the bank is sound, you know that a bank with
illiquid assets and liquid liabilities will default when faced with a
run. While you will get your money back (as the bank is sound), you will
suffer the loss of time value of money and you will suffer the
administrative costs of it all working out. Hence, it's efficient for
you to stand in the queue and try to take your money out.
Runs on mutual funds
We know a lot about runs on banks. What about runs on mutual funds? At
first blush, the simple technology of a mutual fund -- NAV based
valuation, full mark-to-market, liquid assets -- seems run-proof. But in
September 2018, Rs.2.35 trillion exited Indian mutual funds. Why did
such an outsized exit take place? It cannot be just coincidence that
many people felt like leaving at the same time.
Large exits have taken place with mutual funds elsewhere in the world also. During the 2008 crisis,
the Reserve Primary Fund
(with exposure to Lehman Brothers' commercial paper) witnessed a
similar run-like situation. The US District Court's order directing the
liquidation of the fund records
how
redemption requests aggregating to two-thirds of the value of the
assets of the fund were received in a span of less than 48 hours immediately following Lehman Brothers having declared bankruptcy:
Date | Time | Value of redemption requests
received (in USD bn) |
|
15th Sep | 08:40 am | 5 |
15th Sep | 10:30 am | 10 |
15th Sep | 01:00 pm | 16.5 |
16th Sep | 3:45 pm | 40 |
What are the incentives that shape the behaviour of an investor in a
mutual fund? How can a mutual fund industry be susceptible to runs?
Channel 1: Over-valuation can lead to runs
Suppose a mutual fund has 100 bonds that are liquid, where the true
price (market price) is Rs.100. In addition, it has 100 bonds that are
illiquid. The market does not give a reference price for the illiquid
bond. If we tried to find out a prospective sale price, it would be
Rs.50. Suppose the mutual fund claims that this bond is worth Rs.75.
The true portfolio value is 10000+5000 = 15000, but the mutual fund
claims the value is Rs. 17500. Suppose there are 100 units. In this
case, the NAV should be Rs.150, but it is shown as Rs.175.
Over-valuation destabilises rational investors. The rational investor
knows that each unit is truly worth Rs.150, but if she redeems right
away, before the mistake in the NAV calculation is corrected, she will
get Rs.175.
When one unit runs at Rs.175, where does the excessive payment of
Rs.25 come from? It comes from the investors who did not run. This is
unfair, and it creates strong pressure to run.
Channel 2: False promises can lead to large redemptions
Suppose a mutual fund has been sold to investors under the false promise
of it being a safe product. In this scenario, investors do not expect
fluctuations in the NAV, and believe that their investments will be
shielded from turmoil in the markets. If, for any reason, this
expectation is belied, then investors may get spooked by sharp falls
in the NAV. This may induce large redemptions.
In the US, there was a claim that the NAV of money market mutual funds
would not drop below $1. This was termed `breaking the buck'. In 2008,
when the NAV did drop below $1, this caused panic and the flight of
investors who had been told all along that the scheme would not break
the buck.
Channel 3: Runs in an illiquid market
The Indian bond market is extremely illiquid, but even within this
landscape, there is heterogeneity in the extent of illiquidity. Fund
managers will be sensitive to the transactions costs faced when trading
in alternative instruments, and choose the most liquid ones first.
Suppose a mutual fund has some cash in a liquidity buffer, and has 100
bonds that are more liquid, where the true price (market price) is
Rs.100. In addition, it has 100 bonds that are illiquid. Suppose fair
value accounting
is indeed done, and we correctly value the
illiquid bonds at Rs.100. The trouble is, the illiquid bonds incur large
transactions costs when selling in large quantities. While there is a
(bid+offer)/2 of Rs.100, in truth, when a large quantity is sold, the
price realised will be Rs.90. This is an `impact cost' of 10%.
Therefore, when the first redemptions come in, the mutual fund will
adjust by using cash and then it will adjust by selling the liquid bond.
At first, things seem fine. But in time, the mutual fund will have to
rebuild its cash buffer. It will have to get back to a more diversified
and more liquid portfolio. For this, it is going to have to sell the
illiquid bond, and at that time the NAV will go down.
After large redemptions, there is an overhang of selling of illiquid
bonds that is coming in the future. In this situation, investors are
better off leaving early as they get the clean exits associated with the
early use of cash and the early sale of liquid bonds.
Channel 4: Systemic spillovers in an illiquid market
When large redemptions take place in even one or two schemes, at first
they will use cash buffers and sell liquid instruments. But when they
start selling illiquid instruments, this changes the price of those
illiquid instruments. Now declines in prices hit the NAVs of all schemes
that hold those instruments. Through this, large redemptions on a few
schemes propagate into reduced NAVs (at future dates) across the entire
mutual fund industry. Prediction: In periods of large
inflows/redemptions, we will get a pattern of autoregression in the
mutual fund NAVs across days, across the multiple funds that hold a pool
of illiquid instruments.
Rational investors anticipate this phenomenon, and have an incentive to
run when they see large redemptions in even a few mutual fund schemes
(and vice versa).
Runs on mutual funds are a complex phenomenon
We have shown four distinct channels through which large redemptions on mutual funds can develop:
- Overstatement of NAV; it is efficient to leave at a higher price.
- Consumers who thought it was very safe, get spooked, and leave.
- Sales of illiquid securities that are pent up; it is efficient to get out before those transactions hit the NAV.
- Market impact by a few schemes under stress will ricochet into
NAVs of other schemes and the problem will worsen; it is efficient to
get out early.
In India, a large proportion of the customers of fixed income funds are
institutional (e.g. page 4 of
this AMFI document).
These customers are likely to be pretty rational in understanding
problems 1, 3 and 4. Households are likely to be more vulnerable on
account of problem 2.
It is interesting to see the `curse of liquidity'. When redemptions come
in, mutual funds will sell their most liquid bonds first. Through this,
innocent bystanders -- the issuers of liquid securities -- will suffer
from price impact and a higher interest rate.
Thinking about runs on mutual funds thus requires a full view of the
problems of consumer protection (if all consumers accurately understood
the risks that they were taking, they would be less spooked when events
unfold), financial market development (the lack of a liquid bond market)
and systemic risk (channels of contagion through which disruption of
some parts of finance induces disruption of other parts of finance).
Interesting recent experiences in India
While India has not seen a full blown run on mutual funds as was seen
in the US in 2008, a few instances of defaults on bond repayments
followed by falls in NAVs and rise in redemption requests offer useful
insights.
Amtek Auto (2015): In September 2015, Amtek Auto defaulted on a
bond redemption of Rs.800 crore. In the Indian corporate bond market,
once a default takes place, the bond tends to become highly illiquid.
The Amtek Auto bonds were held by two debt schemes of J. P. Morgan
Mutual Fund.
J. P. Morgan did an unusual thing: they put a cap on redemptions. It
subsequently used something analogous to a good-bank-bad-bank structure,
where the scheme was split into two, and the second part held the Amtek
Auto bonds, and could not be redeemed.
This did not go down well with SEBI. SEBI sought to
penalise
J.P. Morgan for, among other things, not following "principles of fair
valuation under mutual fund norms" and for changing fundamental
attributes of the scheme without giving an exit option to the investors.
Nearly three years after the incident, J.P.Morgan
settled
the matter by paying a settlement fee of about Rs. 8.07 crore under the
provisions of the SEBI Act, 1992 providing for settlement of civil and
administrative proceedings.
Ballarpur Industries (2017): In February 2017, Ballarpur
Industries defaulted. At the time, Taurus Mutual Fund held their
commercial paper. Unlike J P Morgan's response, Taurus Mutual Fund
reportedly
marked down the value of the paper to zero. This is a sound and
conservative strategy as it gives a bad deal to the persons who run.
Other mutual funds
reportedly sold such paper to group companies or took it on their own balance sheet to shield the investor from the NAV hit.
ILFS (2018): More recently, ILFS group firms have defaulted on
bonds issued by them. These bonds are present in certain mutual fund
schemes. Some mutual funds have portrayed this event as a loss of 100%,
while others have
portrayed
a 25% loss. Credit rating agencies were very late in understanding the
problems of ILFS, and to the extent that credit ratings are used in
computing the NAV of a mutual fund scheme, these NAVs would have been
overstated.
Why might NAV be overstated?
The IFRS notion of fair market value came about first in finance, on a
global scale, and much later got enshrined into IFRS. For example, in
the US, under the Investment Company Act of 1940, the definition of
`value' for mutual fund securities holdings is construed in one of two
ways. Securities for which `readily available' market quotations
exist must be valued at market levels. All other securities must be
priced at `fair value' as determined in good faith according to
processes approved by the fund's board of directors. Marking a
particular security at a fair value requires a determination of what
an arm's-length buyer, under the circumstances, would currently pay
for that security.
The US SEC's framework recognizes that no single standard exists for determining fair value. By the SEC's interpretation,
a board acts in good faith
when its fair value determination is the result of a sincere and honest
assessment of the amount that the fund might reasonably expect to
receive for a security on its current sale. Fund directors must "satisfy
themselves that all appropriate factors relevant to the value of
securities for which market quotations are not readily available have
been considered" and "determine the method of arriving at the fair value
of each such security."
Supervisory strategies can be developed, to identify if the management
is overstating prices of illiquid securities. As an example, imagine
that there are three mutual funds who hold an illiquid bond and have
claimed a certain fair value of the bond. Now imagine that
one of
those three sells the bond on date T. The market price obtained on date
T by this fund should not be too far from the internal notion of fair
value that was used by the
other two funds.
It is ironic that in India, IFRS concepts of valuation have come to the
non-financial sector first and the financial sector last.
RBI and
IRDA
have explicitly resisted the adoption of IFRS. The lack of fair value
accounting lies at the core of the Indian banking crisis and the
concerns about the soundness of LIC.
Currently, the valuation norms prescribed by SEBI ask AMCs to value
non-traded and/or thinly traded securities "in good faith" based on
detailed criteria. This appears similar to the IFRS principles of fair
value accounting. As an example, bonds issued by ILFS should be marked
down to the prospective resale value, even if the event of a default has
not yet taken place on a particular security.
There are two problems with SEBI's norms on fair value. First, it is not
clear that SEBI has the commensurate supervisory strategy, to verify
that mutual funds are indeed marking down securities to prospective
market values. SEBI does not show supervisory manuals on its website
through which we can assess its processes in this regard. When some
mutual funds have marked down ILFS bonds by 100%, while others have
marked down by 25%, this raises concern about the drafting of the
regulation and/or the supervisory process.
Second, the SEBI-prescribed valuation norms entrench the use of
credit-rating agencies for valuation by mutual funds. As rating agencies
emphasise, their opinion on a security is just an opinion: ratings
should not be used in the drafting of regulations. We should be
skeptical about using rating agencies to override IFRS principles of
valuation. For questions of valuation, the only question should be:
What is the prospective price that would be obtained if this security is sold? There should be no role for the opinions of credit ratings.
We recognise that when an active market is lacking, it is very hard for
anyone to figure out a notion of fair price. This is a problem
ever-present in fair value accounting. E.g. when a non-financial firm
has a piece of land, the market value of that land is not clearly
visible. What we need to fight is not individual instances of estimation
error but estimation bias. By default, the fund managers and the
shareholders of the fund are likely to suffer from a bias in favour of
over-optimistic portrayal of NAV. It is the job of regulators to fight
the bias, not at the level of individual decisions about a benchmark
price, but at the level of the expected value of the estimation error.
How can we improve truth in advertising?
When debt mutual fund investors lose money, there is a tendency to
force the AMC to make good the loss. This may be driven by regulatory
populism, or the temptation to improve the sales of other schemes.
This is a dangerous and unviable course.
Getting the micro-prudential framework correct. Let's think about the
micro-prudential regulation
of a mutual fund. The fund manager is merely an intermediary who
pools funds and invests them in a basket of assets, and issues "units"
that represent an undivided share in such a basket. The risks in
holding these assets are borne by consumers.
The balance sheet of the asset management company is nowhere in the
picture, when it comes to the customer. Micro-prudential regulation in
a mutual fund, therefore, is restricted to procedures for ensuring
that the NAV of the fund is calculated correctly, and does not concern
itself with issues of solvency.
SEBI's regulatory framework governing mutual funds, however, entrenches
the notion of `safe' funds. This is inconsistent with the concept of
agency fund management. For example, the valuation norms for mutual
funds specified by SEBI require mutual funds to provision (that is, set aside capital) in respect of defaulted assets as under:
- Where a debt security in the mutual fund's portfolio has
defaulted on an interest payment, the mutual fund must classify it
as a NPA at the end of a quarter after the due date of payment. For
example, if the due date for interest is 30th June, 2000, it will be
classified as NPA from 1st October, 2000.
- The mutual fund must provision for the principal plus interest
accrued upto the date on which the asset is classified as a NPA.
SEBI prescribes a schedule for provisioning that mandates the mutual
fund to provision upto 100% of the book value of the asset.
This is conceptually flawed. It is perhaps inspired by notions from
banking. But mutual funds are not banks. A regulatory framework that
mandates such provisioning is inconsistent with the idea that a mutual
fund is merely a manager of funds, and entrenches the idea of a promised
return in a debt mutual fund scheme.
If we start thinking that the AMC must pay debt mutual fund schemes
for losses, then a wholly different problem in micro-prudential
regulation will arise. Large AMCs today manage assets worth Rs.1
trillion on a balance sheet of Rs.0.001 trillion. The risk absorption
capacity of such a balance sheet is negligible when compared with the
magnitude of assets. The entire concept of a mutual fund as an agency
mechanism for fund management breaks down, if investors are to have
recourse to the balance sheet of the fund manager.
If we go down the route of asking mutual funds to have equity capital
on their balance sheets, then this changes the very nature of the fund
management business. This sets the stage for confused thinking such
as increasing the minimum capital requirements from firms. In 2014,
SEBI increased the
minimum networth requirements from Rs.10 crore to Rs.50 crore, which has been seen as anti-competitive.
Fix the mismatch of expectations among consumers One more way in which truth in advertising is contaminated is the behaviour of mutual funds themselves.
Suppose some mutual funds dip into their own pockets when faced with a
small default like Ballarpur Industries. What kinds of expectations does
this setup in the minds of consumers? Do consumers then invest in
mutual funds expecting that they will be protected from credit defaults?
Such an expectation will inevitably be violated, when a large default
such as ILFS comes along. For an analogy, if the central bank smooths
the fluctuations of the exchange rate, this
contaminates the expectations
of the economy about the ex-ante risk embedded in exchange rate
exposure, and actually causes greater harm when large exchange rate
changes inevitably come along.
The only sound foundation for the mutual industry is one in which
customers bear all losses. It is incorrect for AMCs to absorb the loss
for small defaults, build an expectation that customers are shielded
from such defaults, and not make good the promise when defaults are
large. This risk needs to be communicated to the mutual fund investor at
the time of investing, and through actions that are "true to label".
One final mechanism through which truth in advertising can be improved
is though enhanced disclosures about liquidity. Customers need to know
more about the ex-post transactions costs experienced by the fund on
various instruments.
How can we reduce systemic risk spillovers?
The root cause of these problems lies in India's failure to build a bond market. We have
a large debt mutual fund industry backed by a poor foundation of bond market liquidity.
Even the most liquid bonds are fairly illiquid. Hence, when such
selling pressure comes about, these bonds will suffer from price
impact. Their prices will go down, their yields will go up. When redemptions take place, for whatever reason, yields
of the most liquid bonds will shoot up. If the selling pressure is
large enough, these markets will stop working.
Critical policy work on building the bond market was begun in 2015, but was rolled back. We need to get back to
this important reform.
If
the underlying corporate bond market is not adequately liquid, debt
schemes should not promise liquidity. This promise is a recipe for
trouble.
In the limit, regulators could restrict open-end schemes to very liquid
instruments. The right institutional mechanisms to hold illiquid assets
are closed-end funds or private equity funds, where the promise of
liquidity is not made.
If open-end schemes must be offered to customers, and if they hold
illiquid securities, there must be limitations on liquidity. SEBI has
allowed restrictions on redemption in "circumstances leading to a
systemic crisis". Specifically, it allows a mutual fund to restrict
redemptions when the "market at large becomes illiquid affecting
almost all securities rather than any issuer of (sic) specific
security". Further, the circular provides that a "restriction on
redemption due to illiquidity of a specific security in the
portfolio of a scheme due to a poor investment decision, shall not
be allowed". This creates considerable confusion on the situations
in which mutual funds may restrict redemptions. For instance, in the
current situation, it is unclear whether a mutual fund having
exposure to the defaulted paper of ILFS would be allowed as it has
the potential of systemic risk spillovers or whether such a
restriction would not be allowed due to the poor investment decision
of the mutual fund scheme.
Mutual funds should be allowed to ring fence losses to ensure that
'all investors are treated fairly', that is, when there is a run on
the fund, those who choose or are unable to redeem their units
do not suffer at the expense of those who do redeem. SEBI was reported to have
rejected a proposal from AMFI that specifically allowed mutual funds to adopt such ring-fencing approaches.
Market liquidity is the commons
These episodes are a reminder of the importance of market liquidity.
The ultimate foundation of the financial system is liquid asset
markets. When asset markets are liquid, marking to market is sound,
financial intermediaries work well, firms can raise resources
through primary market issuance, etc. All this rests on the edifice of
exchanges, instruments, derivatives, arbitrage, algorithmic trading,
etc.
Liquid asset markets have the nature of a public good. Once they
exist, they are non-rival (your consumption of liquidity or price
information does not reduce my access to the same) and
non-excludable (it is not possible to exclude a new-born child from
living under their benign influence).
The very public goods character of liquid markets implies that
nobody will expend effort on building a liquid market. In the
political economy of finance, there are always narrow agendas which
want to harm liquid markets. A steady stream of regulatory and other
actions comes along, seeking to harm liquid markets. There is a tragedy
of the commons, when each regulatory action pollutes market
liquidity. Private persons will not mobilise to solve the financial
economic policy problems that harm market liquidity. This is the
role of the leadership in economic policy.